Crop modelling for land use planning
About this eBook
PREFACE It is important to predict the yield of a crop in advance in order to take several strategic decisions at macro and micro level. This would enable policy makers to plant for food security, to formulate import export strategies and to decide farm prices. For farmers, it would help in planning their marketing strategies and also in taking strategic management decisions. Yield prediction is also required by in surance companies for deciding the compensation to be paid to growers in the wake of crop failures. Crop yields are the most reliable estimates comparative marginal value of the land for land evaluation studies. Prediction of crop yield is very useful in physical land evaluations to provide information on land suitability and also monitor the changes in the productivity and quality of land resources of over time. However, given the uncertainties in the production system, accurate prediction of yield is difficult, but estimates with certain degree o f confidence can be obtained through intuitive judg ment, available information, empirical models and deterministic models. Among them, the commonly employed approaches in yield prediction are based on empiri cal, statistical or sampling techniques with weather as an important variable. Crop simulation models are also being employed for yield prediction either in isolation or in combination with remote sensing and GIS tools. The purpose of land evaluation is to understand the relationships between the con ditions of the land and the manner in which it is utilized. Ideally it should also predict the effects output both positive and negative, resulting from the use of land in a particular manner. Three types of land evaluation, qualitative, quantita tive and economic are done. The land evaluation involves assigning values of differ ent land unites or crop management combination, preferably in economic terms. All land evaluation procedures involves the interpretation of biophysical resources inventories in relation to their use. For agricultural land evaluation, crop yield is the most reliable estimate for marginal value. Yield estimates for land evaluation are obtained through estimates from observed data, productivity indices and crop growth models.
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