Developing New Enterprise
Developing New Enterprise
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A Preview of World Economy and Indian Economy Ooutlook for World Economy The economic performance will pick up modestly in both advanced economies and emerging markets. The advanced economies, benefiting from a half-decade of painful private-sector deleveraging, a smaller fiscal drag with the exception of Japan , and maintenance of accommodative monetary policies, will grow at an annual pace closer to 1.9 . Moreover, so-called tail risks low-probability, high-impact shocks will be less salient in 2014. The threat, for example, of a euro zone implosion, another government shutdown or debt-ceiling fight in the US, a hard landing in China, or a war between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation, will be far more subdued. Still, most advanced economies the US, the euro zone, Japan, the UK, Australia, and Canada will barely reach potential growth, or will remain below it. High budget deficits and public-debt burdens will force governments to continue painful fiscal adjustment. And an abundance of policy and regulatory uncertainties will keep private investment spending in check. The outlook for 2014 is dampened by longer term constraints as well. Indeed, there is a looming risk of secular stagnation in many advanced economies, due to adverse effect on productivity growth of years of underinvestment in human and physical capital.
Positive Signals There are rays of hopes. The trade negotiations agenda for 2014 promises to be exciting. The success of the Bali Ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organisation WTO in the first week of December in 2013 will mean that in 2014 countries will identify areas for early conclusion so that within the next two years, the Doha Agenda of the WTO which has remained in a limbo for long can be concluded. Second, some large bilateral and regional trade agreements, namely the Trans Pacific Partnership TPP , the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership TTIP and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership KCKP are slated to conclude this year. Each of these bilateral agreements has the ability to throw up opportunities worth billions of dollars for business across the globe. It will, therefore, be important for industry in India to keep a close watch on the developments and identify new areas of opportunities that will emerge. Governments that are negotiating these agreements, at the same time, have to ensure that new types of protectionism do not replace some ofthe existing inward looking oriented rules and procedures that protect domestic industry. If world trade is to be provided a boost and industry across the globe has to benefit from the creation of significant growth opportunities then negotiators will have to concentrate on a four-pronged strategy. First, create genuine market access opportunities. The WTO negotiations and the bilateral agreements can help reduce tariffs in a big way on products of interest to businesses across the globe. There has to